class: center middle main-title section-title-1 # Asking Causal Questions .class-info[ **Session 3** .light[STA 379/679: Causal Inference<br> Lucy D'Agostino McGowan ] ] --- ## 👋 ## Lucy D'Agostino McGowan <i class="fa fa-envelope"></i> &nbsp; [mcgowald@wfu.edu](mailto:mcgowald@wfu.edu) <br> <i class="fa fa-calendar"></i> &nbsp; Office hours: Tuesday 10a-11a, 1p-2p --- class: middle, center Everything you will need will be posted at: # [bit.ly/sta-679-s22](http://bit.ly/sta-679-s22) --- class: title title-1, center # <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 640 512" style="height:1em;width:1.25em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M624 416H381.54c-.74 19.81-14.71 32-32.74 32H288c-18.69 0-33.02-17.47-32.77-32H16c-8.8 0-16 7.2-16 16v16c0 35.2 28.8 64 64 64h512c35.2 0 64-28.8 64-64v-16c0-8.8-7.2-16-16-16zM576 48c0-26.4-21.6-48-48-48H112C85.6 0 64 21.6 64 48v336h512V48zm-64 272H128V64h384v256z"/></svg> Lab 00 <br><br> --- layout: false class: center middle section-title section-title-1 # Class details --- class: title title-1 # Academic integrity Adhere to the Wake Forest Honor Code. Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. --- class: title title-1 # Sharing/reusing code * There are many online resources for sharing code (for example, StackOverflow) - you **may** use these resources but **must explicitly cite** where you have obtained code (both code you used directly and "paraphrased" code / code used as inspiration). Any reused code that is not explicitly cited will be treated as plagiarism. --- class: title title-1 # Sharing/reusing code * You **may** discuss the content of assignments with others in this class. If you do so, please acknowledge your collaborator(s) at the top of your assignment, for example: "Collaborators: Gertrude Cox, Florence Nightingale David". Failure to acknowledge collaborators will result in a grade of 0. You **may not** copy code and/or answers **directly** from another student. If you copy someone else's work, both parties will receive a grade of 0. -- * Rather than copying someone else's work, ask for help. You are not alone in this course! --- class: title title-1 # Course components: - Reflections - Application exercises: Usually start in class and finish in teams by the next class period, check/no check - Assessment - Lab: start in class, - Midterm - Final Projects --- class: title title-1 # Grading Component | Weight ----------------------|---------------- Reflections | 5% Application exercises | 10% Midterm | 15% Assessments | 20% Labs | 30% Final Project | 20% --- class: title title-1 # Late/missed work policy - Late work policy for homework and lab assignments: - late, but within 24 hours of due date/time: -50% - any later: no credit --- class: title title-1 # Goals of Analysis .box-inv-1.medium[description] -- .box-inv-1.medium[prediction] -- .box-1.medium[explanation] --- class: title title-1 # Description * What phenomena occur / occurred in the past? -- * What is the prevalence of diabetes in the United States? -- * What are the demographics of our customers? --- class: title title-1 # Prediction * This often involves predicting *whether* a certain phenomena will occur given a set of circumstances -- * How many people will buy our product? -- * How much will this house sell for next year? --- class: title title-1 # Explanation * Involves understanding *why* a phenomena occurs -- * Does smoking cause lung cancer? -- * Does a SARS-CoV-2 infection increase the likelihood of diabetes diagnosis in kids? --- class: section-title-1 center middle title-1 # The first step is asking a good causal question --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  --- class: title title-1 # Diagramming a causal claim  ---  ---  ---  ---  --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions  --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions  --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions  --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions  --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions  --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions .pull-left[ .box-inv-1.medium[the claim] ] .pull-right[ .box-inv-1.medium[the evidence] ] --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions .pull-left[ .box-inv-1.medium[the claim] Smoking causes lung cancer ] .pull-right[ .box-inv-1.medium[the evidence] ] --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions .pull-left[ .box-inv-1.medium[the claim] Smoking causes lung cancer ] .pull-right[ .box-inv-1.medium[the evidence] For people who smoking 15+cigarettes a day, reducing smoking by 50% reduces the risk of lung cancer over 5-10 years ] -- .box-1.medium[do these match?] -- .center[.huge[🙅]] --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions .pull-left[ .box-1.medium[the question] Does smoking cause lung cancer? ] .pull-right[ .box-inv-1.medium[the evidence] For people who smoking 15+cigarettes a day, reducing smoking by 50% reduces the risk of lung cancer over 5-10 years ] .box-1.medium[do these match?] .center[.huge[🙅]] --- class: title title-1 # Asking good causal questions .pull-left[ .box-inv-1.medium[the question] For people who smoke 15+ cigarettes a day, does reducing smoking by 50% reduce the lung cancer risk over 5-10 years? ] .pull-right[ .box-inv-1.medium[the evidence] For people who smoking 15+cigarettes a day, reducing smoking by 50% reduces the risk of lung cancer over 5-10 years ] .box-1.medium[do these match?] .center[.huge[🙌]] --- class: title title-1, center # <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 640 512" style="height:1em;width:1.25em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M624 416H381.54c-.74 19.81-14.71 32-32.74 32H288c-18.69 0-33.02-17.47-32.77-32H16c-8.8 0-16 7.2-16 16v16c0 35.2 28.8 64 64 64h512c35.2 0 64-28.8 64-64v-16c0-8.8-7.2-16-16-16zM576 48c0-26.4-21.6-48-48-48H112C85.6 0 64 21.6 64 48v336h512V48zm-64 272H128V64h384v256z"/></svg> Application Exercise <br><br> .huge[[bit.ly/sta-679-s22-ae3](https://bit.ly/sta-679-s22-ae3)]